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Geopolitical risks, particularly the escalating Ukraine-Russia conflict, are increasingly impacting investor sentiment. Recent US economic data, including a disappointing Philly Fed manufacturing index, has sparked interest in potential interest rate cuts, with a 55.9% chance predicted for December. Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming GDP growth rates and purchasing managers' indices for further economic insights.
Austria's energy chief stated that the decision for OMV AG to exit its long-term gas contract with Gazprom lies with the company's executives and shareholders, as the risk of blackmail over supplies has diminished. The contract, established in 2018, extends until 2040 and has come under scrutiny following OMV's €230 million arbitration win against Gazprom, which halted fuel deliveries in response to the settlement claim.
The Indian markets are experiencing their longest losing streak in five months, down over 10% from September highs, driven by disappointing Q2 earnings, foreign outflows, and rising global tensions, particularly from the Ukraine conflict. With inflation surpassing the RBI's comfort zone and foreign investors retreating, the outlook remains bleak as the dollar reaches a one-year high, complicating the path to a bull market revival on Dalal Street. The current environment favors bears, leaving bulls with a challenging road ahead.
Silver prices are nearing the critical $30 mark amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly following Russia's updated nuclear doctrine and recent military actions involving Ukraine. Investors are also focused on upcoming US economic data, including unemployment claims and consumer confidence, which could influence market sentiment. The $30 level serves as a key psychological barrier; a sustained hold above it may lead to a rally towards $35, while a drop below could increase downward pressure.
U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and mixed economic data. The 10-year yield increased to 4.4178%, while new housing starts fell short of expectations. Market participants are also anticipating upcoming economic reports and Federal Reserve remarks.
The euro has remained above parity with the U.S. dollar since September 2022, but rising tensions with Russia and potential U.S. tariffs under President-elect Trump could threaten this stability. Economists predict the euro may return to parity by 2025, influenced by U.S. monetary policy and global trade uncertainties. The outlook remains volatile, with factors such as tariffs and economic responses from Europe and China playing crucial roles in the euro"s future trajectory.
The Nasdaq rose over 1% and the S&P 500 also gained, driven by a surge in technology stocks ahead of Nvidia"s quarterly results. Walmart"s shares hit a record high after the retailer raised its annual forecasts, while the Dow finished lower amid geopolitical tensions. Nvidia"s stock climbed 4.9%, significantly boosting all three major indexes.
Nvidia"s upcoming earnings report is generating significant anticipation, overshadowing geopolitical tensions, including Russia"s warning of a nuclear response to Ukraine"s missile strikes. U.S. markets showed resilience, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing higher, while Qualcomm projected $22 billion in additional annual revenue by 2029. Investors are keenly focused on Nvidia"s performance and its next-generation Blackwell chips, which are critical for maintaining its lead in the AI chip market.
Nvidia"s stock rose nearly 5% to $147.01, with a significant 196% increase in 2024, as it prepares to report earnings. Retail giant Target also reports, while Walmart"s stock hit a new high after solid results. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines continue to see substantial gains, with Delta up 61% in 2024. Meanwhile, three utility companies—NiSource, Sempra, and Vistra—reached all-time highs, with Vistra gaining nearly 24% in November alone.
The cryptocurrency market has recently surged, with a global market cap exceeding $3.1 trillion, marking a 2.8% increase in just one day. Amid ongoing conflict, Ukraine is intensifying efforts to combat financial crimes related to cryptocurrencies, training officials in Vienna. Meanwhile, the Russian Ruble has plummeted to a 17-month low against the dollar due to economic pressures from the war.
Vladimir Putin
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